Pilot Study on Improving Strategic Foresight Analysis (SFA) Methodology Using Computing Power
A. This pilot study aims to provide a proof of concept to outline how computing power and data analysis tools could be used to support different aspects of strategic foresight analysis methodology. The deliverables of the SFA Pilot Study will be in two parts: First, a report on how political trends will evolve over the next two decades and shape the future security context; the second a report on the lessons learned using computing power in development of the SFA research, trend analysis and scenario development.
B. NATO ACT will conduct a pilot study by incorporating computing
power and tools in the research, trend analysis and scenario
development parts of its methodology in the development of SFA
reports. This pilot study encompasses three different but
interrelated tasks:
1. Task 1: Research/Large Data Ingest Tool(s): Contractor is expected to reach out and access different web pages and other data sources that are identified by the requirements holder. Should contractor identify any additional data sources, those will be coordinated with the requirements holder. The use of commercial sources of information will be coordinated with the requirements holder to avoid duplicate
payments. Data sources will be aligned with the SFA themes: Political-Human-Technology-Economics/Resources -Environment.
Contractor will use a much larger data set and data analytics to extract data from multiple sources. In this context, a wide variety of reports and media/social media sources will be included. Crowd sourcing techniques will also be used as part of data collection and verification. The tool(s) should enable machine learning as data collection continues. The contractor will be responsible for the storage of the collected data. This data will not be shared with any other entity without authorization of the HQ SACT.
The data derived from multiple sources as an outcome of search will be stored, indexed, cleaned and be ready for further analysis. Data will categorised and classified to allow the analyst access without any restrictions. The data will be structured in a common and usable format. It must also be possible to reliably automate structuring and formating conversions. The origin and source of the data should be available to COTR to make sure sources are known so that credibility and reliability can be evaluated. The contractor will provide insights on how data is collected, categorised, cleaned, verified and validated.
2. Task 2: Trend Analysis Tool(s): The contractor will use prepared data to further analyse trends, cause and effect relations and cluster trends to reduce the number of trends to a comprehensible level by the analysts. In order to analyse trends, contractor will install/allow use of tool(s). Contractor will provide descriptive analytic tools, such as mind maps, to visualize the data and provide insights on the evolution and trajectory of the trends. Contractor will also provide tools for trend management and support for development of the reports that will provide insights on the trends and their associated implications.
3. Task 3. Scenario Development Tool(s): Based on the outcome of research, Contractor will provide a scenario development tool(s) that will be used to gain further insights, inform and/or validate trends and implications. The scenario tool(s) should allow ‘what if' analysis for exploration of certain hypotheses. As a result, scenario analysis tool(s) will increase the ability to provide in-depth analysis of different situations and to identify indicators, trends and associated defence and security implications.Please read entire Notice of Intent for requirement.
Issue Date: 13 November 2018, (target date)
Bid Closing Date: 03 January 2019, (target date)
Type of Contract: Firm Fixed Price (FFP), Deliverables Contract.
Period of Performance: 20 January 2019 (Estimated) - 31 October 2019 (Estimated)
Michael DiProspero, ACT Contracting Officer, Phone 7574743612, Email michael.diprospero@act.nato.int - Charmaine Yap, ACT Contracting Officer, Phone 7574744240, Email charmaine.yap@act.nato.int
